A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
