Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
